In November, Car Sales Show Signs of Stability
New-vehicle
sales figures being released Tuesday for November show that the auto industry’s
recovery is gaining momentum, albeit slowly.
General
Motors, Ford Motor, Toyota and Honda said their sales were about the same last
month as they were a year ago. It was the second consecutive month that sales
for most of the big companies were roughly flat.
The only
major carmaker to report a large drop was Chrysler, whose sales fell 25
percent. Hyundai, in contrast, reported a 46 percent increase.
Vehicles
were selling at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of about 11 million in
November, according to estimates from G.M. and Chrysler. That is slightly
higher than October’s rate of about 10.5 million and much higher than the
historically low rate of about 9 million seen in the early part of 2009.
“The
market is slowly steadying itself and gaining strength,” G.M.’s chief sales
analyst, Michael C. DiGiovanni, said on a conference call with analysts and
reporters. “We’re encouraged.”
In
response to rising demand, G.M. said it would build 75 percent more vehicles in
the first quarter than it did a year earlier, and Ford said it would raise
first-quarter production by 58 percent. Both companies had been drastically
cutting production since the middle of last year.
November’s
selling rate was the third highest of the year, behind July and August when
sales increased as a result of the government’s cash-for-clunkers program. The
program gave a credit of up to $4,500 to about 700,000 new-vehicle buyers who
turned in a less fuel-efficient car or truck.
Sales
were flat in October, so two consecutive months in which sales were largely
unchanged is a positive sign for an industry suffering its steepest one-year
slump since the 1970s.
“The good
news is this is being accomplished now without the cash for clunkers or any
industry stimulus,” Mr. DiGiovanni told reporters recently. “The economy is
clearly getting better, and the industry’s getting better.”
For all
of 2009, industry sales were down 25 percent through October.
November
was the worst month of 2008 for most automakers, making this year’s numbers
look better. A year ago, many would-be buyers were unable to get financing, and
the Detroit automakers were making their first pleas to Congress for billions
of dollars in emergency aid to help them stay in business.
Today,
many automakers are increasing production as a result of rising sales and low
inventories. But they are moving cautiously because of uncertainty about how
quickly the economy will rebound next year.
“We can
see now that a modest economic recovery is under way,” Emily Kolinski Morris,
Ford’s senior United States economist, said on a conference call Tuesday. “It
won’t begin to feel like a recovery until the labor market has begun to improve
materially.”
But there
are “no signs of backtracking,” she said, “which is a welcome development.”
The one
carmaker that so far has been missing out on the industry’s recovery is
Chrysler, which exited bankruptcy protection in June. Chrysler’s sales are down
38 percent this year through November, and it has continued to report
double-digit percentage declines in recent months even as its competitors began
to show signs of strength.
Meanwhile,
Ford, which separated itself from its crosstown rivals by not filing for
bankruptcy protection or taking government loans, is on pace to increase its
share of the United States market this year. Ford’s market share has fallen
every year since 1995. Through October, Ford’s share was 15.2 percent, up from
14.3 percent in the first 10 months of 2008.
Ford’s
sales in November were down 0.2 percent. G.M.’s sales were down 2 percent.
Toyota’s were up 3 percent. Honda’s were down 3 percent. The November numbers
were not adjusted for two fewer selling days this year than last.
Hyundai
led the industry’s gains last month, as it has through most of 2009 by
appealing to consumers who wanted lower-priced but reliable alternatives to
some more popular vehicles. A report released Tuesday by the Environmental
Protection Agency gave Hyundai another liftt by showing that it had topped
Honda to sell the nation’s most fuel-efficient vehicle lineup.
At G.M.,
the four brands being sold or shut down — Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn —
accounted for just 8 percent of sales in November. Sales at those brands were
down 48 percent from a year ago, while sales of Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and
GMC vehicles were up 6 percent.
G.M.
built its last Pontiac, a G6 sedan, at a plant in Orion Township, Mich., last
week. Susan Docherty, G.M.’s vice president for United States sales, said
Tuesday that the company expected to run out of inventory for Pontiac and
Saturn within about three months.
“They’re
going quickly,” Ms. Docherty said. “The wind down of both of these brands is
progressing very nicely and it’s actually exceeding our expectations in terms
of the sales progress.”
G.M. has
a pending deal to sell Hummer to a Chinese manufacturer. A Swedish luxury
sports-car maker, the Koenigsegg Group, last week backed out of a deal to buy
Saab.
G.M.’s
directors said Tuesday in a statement that they had received some inquiries
about Saab since the Koenigsegg deal had fallen through and would evaluate
potential bids between now and the end of December.